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S-Curve Analysis of Bitcoin Adoption
There are many profound ways to analyze and value Bitcoin and other blockchain technologies, but one of our favorites is the S-Curve analysis. The S-Curve analysis demonstrates that the initial phases of adoption of a technology grow much slower initially than they do in the middle of the adoption phases.
Mid-stage adoption growth rates are particularly high, and often accompanied by parabolic growth curves and related price curves.
Finally, once adoption of the technology matures, the growth rates slow down substantially and the curve “flattens,” demonstrating that mass adoption has taken place.
Bitcoin, among other cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies, have gone through the initial part of the S-Curve for the last decade, achieving approximately a 10% ratio of mass adoption. This early phase is by far the riskiest phase for investors and early adopters. Either the new technology will fail, or it will move to the next phase of adoption, which generally takes the same period of time to achieve 90% adoption, as it did the first 10%. (see below)
Bitcoin and blockchain have achieved this monumental adoption rate of approximately 10% in the first decade of its existence.
Therefore, we believe that the next decade will likely usher in the growth which may likely achieve 90% adoption around the year 2030. If we are correct, the next decade is likely to be extremely volatile, and certainly positive, for the Bitcoin and blockchain technologies as a whole.
Like the “dot-com bubble” in 2000, there is usually a mid-curve “shakeout” phase that roils markets, shakes confidence, and makes everyone question the longevity of an asset class. The dot-com bubble is still talked about widely today, even though it is more than 20 years in the past. The same may be true for blockchain and cryptocurrencies as a whole, although many would argue that the inherent volatility of new technology is being priced into the markets almost second by second, and therefore the shakeouts may be shorter and less significant than the singular event of the year 2000 for dot-com companies.
The use cases for blockchain and cryptocurrencies continue to grow by the day. If the S-Curve analysis is correct, we are at the beginning of a decade long historic opportunity set that many people only see once a generation. It is quite possible that we could be watching the initial volatility of the up-move from 2020 onwards. Similarly, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and other technology companies faced the same kind of volatility in their infancy as well. Few people saw the vision of what the future would hold, and how integral those companies would become to our daily lives. It is not lost on us that the same or similar potential exists in the blockchain space, and thus the opportunity set is too big to ignore.
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“Too Big to Ignore” to “Too Big to Ban”
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